As Indonesia gears up for its crucial election on 14 February 2024, the political landscape is abuzz with speculation and anticipation. With most surveys favoring Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming as the winner, a reflection on the post-election is needed to understand the various factors to be anticipated. This preliminary analysis will delve into three key checkpoints that will likely shape the course of the election and its aftermath: the future opposition, the threat of united government, and the prospect of the rise of critical civil society--which insignificant for years under two tenure of Jokowi's administration.
Future Opposition Dynamics:
One of the critical aspects to observe is the potential emergence of a strong and significant opposition post-election. Among the prominent candidates – Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Baswedan, Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming, and Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD – a careful assessment is required to determine who could effectively lead the opposition.
- Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Baswedan's alliance: With Anies Baswedan's experience as Jakarta's governor and Muhaimin Baswedan's political acumen, they might form a formidable opposition, especially given their diverse backgrounds and appeal. However, there are reports suggesting that some elites within the Anies-Muhaimin coalition are preparing to build alliances not only with Ganjar’s side but also with Prabowo’s favoured side. Please remember: Muhaimin's PKB was and is still supporter of government and has insufficient experience outside the government's alliance. The prospect of opposition under Anies-Muhaimin’s umbrella is thereby still uncertain.
- Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming: This pair is the most unlikely candidate to win the contest. Instead, the question is: how will this pair set up their government alongside the opposition? If they adopt the winning formula of Jokowi, who offered numerous incentives and strategic positions to attract and weaken the opposition, how long and to what extent will this strategy be run and maintained?
- Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD's alliance: Ganjar Pranowo's party, PDI-P, and Mahfud MD's legal expertise might make them an attractive choice for those seeking a balanced opposition with a focus on institutional integrity. It remains to be seen how PDI-P envisions its future – is the party ready to be outside the government? To what extent is PDI-P preparing to be a formidable balancer of Prabowo-Jokowi alliances in the post-2024 election?
United Government and Alliances:
The concept of a "united government" and the continuation of Jokowi's policy approach through a big alliance are central themes in Prabowo's campaign. Understanding who will align with Prabowo's offer is crucial for predicting the political landscape post-election. The big alliance proposed by Prabowo suggests a broad-based coalition. Observers will need to closely monitor which political parties, interest groups, and influential figures decide to join this alliance, as it will significantly impact the stability and effectiveness of the future government.
Strengthening of Critical Civil Society:
Beyond the elites' contestation, the outcome of this election has the potential to influence the strengthening of critical civil society – a facet that may have been overshadowed during Jokowi's ten-year presidency. The role of civil society organisations, grassroots movements, and public engagement will be essential in shaping the broader socio-political environment. The election result may serve as a catalyst for increased civic participation and activism, as citizens respond to the policies and governance styles of the elected leaders. This could mark a significant shift in the dynamics between the government and civil society, impacting issues such as human rights, the manipulative pre-electoral process, and social justice.
As Indonesia stands at the precipice of a transformative election, these three key checkpoints provide a preliminary framework for understanding the potential outcomes and implications. The interplay between political leaders, alliances, and civil society will shape the trajectory of the nation in the post-election era.
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