Have you ever been confused by the inconsistent maneuvers of our political elites? They support each other one moment, then swiftly change their stance to antagonism: new alliances form with former adversaries, while old partnerships crumble. This political dance, as intricate as it is perplexing, plays out across various electoral arenas.
Here is my take on this depressing politics, published by Kompas: https://www.kompas.id/baca/opini/2024/07/25/partokrasi-dalam-pilkada
We explore how 'toxic unity' rhetoric masks elite deals that subvert democracy without overt repression. Our research identifies seven key features of these alliances:
- Improbable bedfellows (e.g., Prabowo/Jokowi, Zahid/Anwar)
- Reputational whitewashing
- Clandestine deals (pardons, dropped cases)
- Hidden brokerage by behind-the-scenes actors
- Exclusionary agendas
- Discursive appeals
- Voter alienation
These Faustian pacts demand critical scrutiny. They turn elections into tools for undermining democratic processes and boost influence of extraconstitutional powers.
Download the open access here: https://muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/article/930431
Accepting political dynasties as part of 'Asian values' is a lazy argument. More than that, this reasoning seems like an attempt to excuse political dynasties and accept them as an everyday fact. My latest op-ed, published by Kompas, aims to refute those apologetic arguments: https://www.kompas.id/baca/opini/2024/06/23/memaafkan-dinasti-politik
Indonesia needs strong opposition. But what kind of opposition? What is the possible, realistic projection of opposition amidst the aggressive promiscuous power-sharing and toxic alliance?
Here my latest op-ed published by Harian Kompas this morning (10/05):
This is my op-ed, published by Kompas this morning, criticizing Ulil Abshar Abdalla's article (15/02) about Prabowo Subianto's victory, which is very simplistic, biased, and premature. My writing dissects the fallacies in Ulil's thinking, as he presented three controversial propositions: 1) that the issue of democratic decline seems to be an elitist concern only; 2) that Prabowo's victory proves the broad public's preference for a continuity narrative à la Jokowi rather than a narrative of 'change' and reform; and 3) that the resilience of Indonesian democracy is commendable enough, and the death of democracy is an impossibility. The three propositions are very problematic because they overlook many factors.
https://www.kompas.id/baca/opini/2024/02/20/sesat-pikir-tentang-demokrasi-indonesia?open_from=Opini_Page
My op-ed, published by Jawa Pos (16/02), responds to the 'victory' political speech of Prabowo-Gibran at Istora, the night after the election (14/02). The speech is a serious signal for the future government's political obsession that prioritises the illusion of unity and reconciliation while downplaying (once again) the role of the opposition. This formula continues the political stability maintained since President Joko Widodo's regime. In this article, I attempt to unravel the implications of the potential grand coalition and its risks for the political opposition.
Link here
As Indonesia gears up for its crucial election on 14 February 2024, the political landscape is abuzz with speculation and anticipation. With most surveys favoring Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming as the winner, a reflection on the post-election is needed to understand the various factors to be anticipated. This preliminary analysis will delve into three key checkpoints that will likely shape the course of the election and its aftermath: the future opposition, the threat of united government, and the prospect of the rise of critical civil society--which insignificant for years under two tenure of Jokowi's administration.
Future Opposition Dynamics:
One of the critical aspects to observe is the potential emergence of a strong and significant opposition post-election. Among the prominent candidates – Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Baswedan, Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming, and Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD – a careful assessment is required to determine who could effectively lead the opposition.
- Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Baswedan's alliance: With Anies Baswedan's experience as Jakarta's governor and Muhaimin Baswedan's political acumen, they might form a formidable opposition, especially given their diverse backgrounds and appeal. However, there are reports suggesting that some elites within the Anies-Muhaimin coalition are preparing to build alliances not only with Ganjar’s side but also with Prabowo’s favoured side. Please remember: Muhaimin's PKB was and is still supporter of government and has insufficient experience outside the government's alliance. The prospect of opposition under Anies-Muhaimin’s umbrella is thereby still uncertain.
- Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming: This pair is the most unlikely candidate to win the contest. Instead, the question is: how will this pair set up their government alongside the opposition? If they adopt the winning formula of Jokowi, who offered numerous incentives and strategic positions to attract and weaken the opposition, how long and to what extent will this strategy be run and maintained?
- Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD's alliance: Ganjar Pranowo's party, PDI-P, and Mahfud MD's legal expertise might make them an attractive choice for those seeking a balanced opposition with a focus on institutional integrity. It remains to be seen how PDI-P envisions its future – is the party ready to be outside the government? To what extent is PDI-P preparing to be a formidable balancer of Prabowo-Jokowi alliances in the post-2024 election?
United Government and Alliances:
The concept of a "united government" and the continuation of Jokowi's policy approach through a big alliance are central themes in Prabowo's campaign. Understanding who will align with Prabowo's offer is crucial for predicting the political landscape post-election. The big alliance proposed by Prabowo suggests a broad-based coalition. Observers will need to closely monitor which political parties, interest groups, and influential figures decide to join this alliance, as it will significantly impact the stability and effectiveness of the future government.
Strengthening of Critical Civil Society:
Beyond the elites' contestation, the outcome of this election has the potential to influence the strengthening of critical civil society – a facet that may have been overshadowed during Jokowi's ten-year presidency. The role of civil society organisations, grassroots movements, and public engagement will be essential in shaping the broader socio-political environment. The election result may serve as a catalyst for increased civic participation and activism, as citizens respond to the policies and governance styles of the elected leaders. This could mark a significant shift in the dynamics between the government and civil society, impacting issues such as human rights, the manipulative pre-electoral process, and social justice.
As Indonesia stands at the precipice of a transformative election, these three key checkpoints provide a preliminary framework for understanding the potential outcomes and implications. The interplay between political leaders, alliances, and civil society will shape the trajectory of the nation in the post-election era.
